Relationships and Rivalries: Assessing Al-Qaeda's Affiliate Network

Wednesday 27 October 2010

Under sustained pressure from US and coalition forces in the Afghan-Pakistan border region, Al-Qaeda has been forced to rely on affiliate groups spread across North and East Africa, the Gulf States, South and Southeast Asia to sustain its transnational jihad. In Yemen, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has grown in stature and become an important asset to Al-Qaeda’s Senior Leadership (AQSL) in the FATA by organizing and executing its first attack outside the Arabian Peninsula in December 2009. Similarly, the Somali Islamist group Al-Shabab carried out its first attack beyond Somalia’s borders when it carried out simultaneous suicide bombings in the Ugandan capital Kampala in July 2010, raising questions about the extent to which Al-Shabab too is becoming more fully incorporated into the global jihadist movement.

Meanwhile, Al-Qaeda’s branch in Indonesia re-emerged in March 2010, and AQSL announced the establishment of its Kashmir branch in June 2010. Understanding the evolution of these and other local groups into potentially more capable regional or international actors, as well as the nature of their connections with AQSL, is vital to the continued success of western counterterrorism efforts.

IHS Jane’s analysts will be presenting recent research findings on Al-Qaeda’s relationships with local groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as North Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, assessing the conflicting or converging priorities of Al-Qaeda and its affiliate globally, as well as the factors and dynamics dictating Al-Qaeda’s relationships with local organizations, and the impact of these perhaps differing priorities on Al-Qaeda’s ability to retain its influence over the pan-Islamic jihad.

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