Conflict scenarios for the Korean Peninsula

9 February 2011

IHS Jane’s examines the risk of conventional military conflict between North Korea and South Korea by comparing respective military capability.

North Korea's artillery attack on Yeonpyeong island in the West Sea (Yellow Sea), which killed four South Koreans and injured 18, has opened a new chapter of instability on the Korean Peninsula.

A consensus is building in Seoul that Pyongyang will launch further military provocations. National Intelligence Service chief Won Sei-hoon stated on 1 December that the North’s attack on 23 November was part of a long-term strategy aimed at bolstering the position of Kim Jong-un, the son and heir apparent of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.

South Korea’s subsequent refusal to cancel military exercises with the US in the West Sea (Yellow Sea) further illustrates that Seoul is anticipating renewed conflict with the North. It also reveals that Seoul is likely to continue its harder line towards the North, adopted by President Lee Myung-bak since his election, in contrast to the 'Sunshine' policy of the past decade.

Given the heightened potential for further inter-Korean clashes during 2011, Jane’s experts will assess the comparative strengths and weaknesses of the conventional armed forces of the two countries, given respective military equipment and personnel capabilities.

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