A Year in Review - State Stability

19 January 2011

Considerable fluctuations in global security have taken place in 2010. While the recovering global economy has resulted in levels of stability improving in a number of regions, particularly in Europe, some countries have experienced significant declines. As measured by Jane's Country Stability Ratings, Afghanistan, Haiti and Yemen have experienced ongoing deterioration in their security situations throughout the year.

Afghanistan and Iraq, the main sites of US military deployment overseas, experienced sharply differing fortunes in 2010. With insurgent attacks continuing to mount and controversial parliamentary elections in September, Afghan stability levels have declined steadily. Such ongoing security issues may undermine efforts to set a timeline for ending NATO and US combat deployment in Afghanistan, with the NATO summit in Lisbon in November tentatively planning for control of security operations to be handed over to Afghan forces by 2014.

More encouragingly for the United States, Iraq's stability remained unchanged in 2010, despite the end of US combat operations in August. Although a little fewer than 50,000 US troops remain in Iraq in an advisory and assistance capacity, Iraqi forces now have the lead role in all security operations. The formal end of US combat operations on 31 August was followed by a number of targeted insurgent bomb attacks, particularly in Baghdad. However, international concerns about a potential deterioration of security in Iraq following the US withdrawal so far appear to have been overly pessimistic, although the capability of the Iraqi security forces will be tested over the course of 2011.

IHS Jane’s analysts will be presenting the key regional trends for 2011, ranging from military tensions on the Korean peninsula to post-election violence in Cote d’Ivoire. The analysis team will also examine the impact of potential leadership change in 2011, with North Korea’s succession plans beginning to take shape and President Barack Obama beginning to look to his prospects for re-election in 2012.

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