Fighter market heats up in the Gulf

David Donald

Sunday, 20 February, 2011

In recent times, the focus of the world’s fighter manufacturers has been distracted away from the Gulf region to the major competitions in Brazil and India. However, the announcement towards the end of last year of a huge potential order by Saudi Arabia served as a reminder that the Middle East remains a market offering enormous potential, as several Gulf States seek to further modernise their fighter forces.

Last October, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) released details of a proposed sale of vast proportions to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. As well as numerous helicopters, the deal included a near-$30 billion for 84 new Boeing F-15SA multirole fighters, together with upgrade packages to the same standard for 70 current F-15Ss. The new fighters are highly advanced versions of the Eagle, with the latest defensive avionics and Raytheon’s APG-63(V)3 electronically scanned (AESA) radar.

When this order is finalised – and there is no reason to expect otherwise – the deal will accelerate the Royal Saudi Air Force’s modernisation plan, which is already underway through the ongoing delivery of 72 Eurofighter Typhoons and the upgrading of Tornado attackers.

UAE

Although on its own, the Saudi deal significantly alters the air power map in the region, other Gulf States are also in the process of procuring new fighters. Here in the UAE, a requirement exists to replace the 63-strong fleet of Dassault Mirage 2000-9s with a state-of-the-art fighter.

Two years ago it surfaced that the UAE was intending to acquire the Dassault Rafale in a deal for 60 aircraft that could be worth about $10 billion. The UAE reportedly requires a developed version of the aircraft that currently serves with French forces, with uprated engines and RBE2-AA AESA radar in place of the current passive e-scan unit.

Developing a more capable version of the Rafale would involve investment from the UAE, but in the past this concept has paid dividends, notably with the Mirage 2000. Having funded some of the 2000-9’s development, the UAE receives royalties on further sales of the technology.

The nation also invested similarly in the development of the F-16 Block 60 Desert Falcon, which is in UAE service and forms the basis of Lockheed Martin’s proposal to India. Negotiations were ongoing for some time, but in October last year the French press reported that they had been halted, shortly after the UAE reportedly approached the US for technical data on the Boeing Super Hornet.

In mid-December 2010, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan met with President Sarkozy, and last month the French media reported that negotiations had resumed. The French government’s go-ahead for integration of the Meteor missile on the Rafale was seen as removing at least one of the stumbling blocks to the deal. More may be revealed this week about the UAE’s final choice of fighter.

Kuwait

One nation that may purchase Rafales in the near future is Kuwait. Interest in the aircraft began officially during a Gulf tour by President Sarkozy in February 2008, resulting in the start of negotiations for up to 28 Rafales to replace the Kuwait Air Force’s current fleet of Boeing F/A-18 Hornets. Political opposition to the deal was raised last spring, but the government initially remained committed to the deal. In the summer, however, reports surfaced that Kuwait was interested in Boeing’s F-15SE Silent Eagle, and may also be looking at the Super Hornet.

Qatar

Rafale is also in the running for a contract from Qatar, which announced a requirement some time ago. The state currently has a small and little-used fleet of Mirage 2000s, but is looking for an expanded fighter force of between 24 and 36 aircraft.

Having supplied the current and previous generations of Qatari fighters, Dassault is a strong contender, but faces challenges from the Eurofighter Typhoon and Saab Gripen NG, plus the Boeing F-15 and Super Hornet, and Lockheed Martin F-35. Evaluation is underway by the Qatar Emiri Air Force and a type selection is due to be made before the end of 2012.

Oman

For some time, the Royal Air Force of Oman has been linked with a deal to procure up to 24 Eurofighter Typhoons via BAE Systems but, as with Rafale deals in the region, this has yet to be finalised. France responded with an offer of a similar number of Rafales in early 2009, and the Saab Gripen was also proposed.

Nonetheless, it appears that the Typhoon deal is in the last stages of negotiation, covering an initial batch of 12 aircraft, with more potentially to follow. In the meantime, last August a US DSCA notification was received covering the potential sale to Oman of 18 new Lockheed Martin F-16 Block 50/52 fighters, plus upgrades to 12 existing F-16s.

Iraq

Provision of a multirole fighter is part of the long-term plan for the rehabilitation of the Iraqi Air Force. A number of options has been mooted, including the acquisition of ex-UAE Mirage 2000s and the upgrade and refurbishment of Mirage F1s.

However, from an early stage the Lockheed Martin F-16 has been the front-runner, underscored by a notification to US Congress by the DSCA in September last year covering the possible sale of 18 ‘F-16IQ’ aircraft, based on the Block 50/52, as the first step to meet an eventual requirement of nearly 100 fighters.

On 26 January 2011, the Iraqi Council of Ministers approved the deal in principle, allocated initial funding and authorised Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to negotiate the details of the contract. However, if the deal proceeds, the F-16s would not be operational for some years, and Iraq aims to begin policing its own airspace long before that, although this will not be achieved in time to meet the original deadline at the end of 2011, when US forces are due to leave the country.

Nevertheless, other interim acquisitions are being explored, such as an offer from France to supply 18 refurbished Mirage F1s (a type previously in the IqAF inventory), or the purchase of Chengdu/PAC JF-17. More likely is the loan or purchase of surplus US Air Force F-16s to cover the gap until Iraq’s dedicated F-16IQs are operational.

Eurofighter’s Typhoon, shown here in the UAE last year during an exercise, is already in service in the region with Saudi Arabia. It is well along the road to an order from Oman, and is a strong contender in the Qatari competition